一级免费看_日韩亚洲欧美在线_亚洲三级小说_一区二区三区在线观看免费_亚洲一区二区免费看_天天综合av

Developed economies

　　Over the edge　
　
　　Oct 30th 2008

　　From The Economist print edition

　　AS RECENTLY as a month ago, there were still hopes that America and Europe might just pull back from the precipice of a recession. Those hopes have been dashed. The economies of the rich world seem to have fallen off a cliff. The question now is the height of the drop.

　　Central banks are trying to cushion the fall. On October 29th the Federal Reserve lowered its target for the federal funds rate to 1%, matching the trough it reached in 2003. It may cut again. With remarkable speed, worries have shifted from inflation, which is still around 5%, to deflation. Fed officials still think that, if even pessimistic forecasts came to pass, inflation would not fall below zero. But Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecaster, now reckons that core inflation will fall to 1.3% by 2010, too close to zero for the Fed’s comfort. They expect the Fed to cut the federal funds rate to 0.5% in December and then, with scant room for more cuts, that it may try to stimulate growth using unconventional measures such as further expanding its lending facilities to banks and other firms.

　　The rate cut was needed. America’s economic data have become starkly weaker since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in mid-September. The latest GDP numbers, released on October 30th, showed that output fell by an annualised 0.3% in the third quarter. Surveys of manufacturing activity have shifted down. Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits have shot up. A monthly index of consumer attitudes compiled by the Conference Board, a research group, plummeted to a record low of 38 in October, down from 61.4 in September.

　　Confidence surveys are unreliable predictors of consumer spending. But the destruction of wealth through falling stockmarkets and tightening credit conditions are already having an effect. On a seasonally adjusted basis, light-vehicle sales in September were the lowest since 1992, according to Autodata Corp, a research firm. On October 28th Whirlpool, an appliance maker, gave warning that low home sales would cut revenue and Royal Caribbean Cruises, a cruise operator, lowered profit estimates because of “a significant deterioration recently in new bookings”.

　　A similar downward lurch is under way in Europe, where the European Central Bank seems poised to cut interest rates for the second time this autumn on November 6th. The Munich Ifo Institute’s index, which measures the mood of German businesses, sank to its lowest level for more than five years in October. Volvo wins the prize for statistic of the crunch to date. The Swedish firm said it had received a mere 115 orders for heavy trucks in Europe in the third quarter, down by 99.7% on the 41,970 order bookings during the same period of 2007.
America and Europe cannot count on exports to make up for faltering domestic demand, because the crisis has spread to emerging markets. Airbus and Boeing, for example, had counted on orders of 300 aircraft from India in the next five years to help offset slower demand in Europe and America. Some of those are in jeopardy. Jet Airways, India’s largest domestic carrier, announced its biggest quarterly loss in more than three years on October 25th.

　　Economists disagree about how bad it will get. Dean Maki of Barclays Capital says that falling wealth tends to affect consumer spending over many years rather than right away. It is just the opposite with changes in real income because of petrol prices. Consumer spending could conceivably be lifted by the sharp drop in oil prices that has unfolded since July, which Macroeconomic Advisers estimates to be worth more than $100 billion on an annualised basis. Mr Maki notes that consumer confidence plunged after the September 11th terrorist attacks but that Fed rate cuts enabled interest-free loans which dramatically boosted car sales. Another small positive sign is that home sales rose slightly in September and that house prices have actually risen in a few cities.

　　These glimmers may be snuffed out by the unprecedented tightening in credit now under way. According to Ed McKelvey of Goldman Sachs, the only comparable modern precedent is the federal government’s short-lived imposition of credit controls in early 1980, which produced a dramatic downturn in American consumer spending. That episode ended when controls were removed. Today, credit restraint chiefly depends on how long it takes the private sector to respond to policy actions such as the Fed’s commercial-paper purchases and the widespread recapitalisation of weakened banks. “Government is working as hard as it can, but in the end it’s the private sector that does the lending,” he says.

　　翻譯：yuvia

　　就在一個(gè)月前，人們還盼望著歐美各國(guó)能夠從衰退的絕境中起死回生；而今，希望已完全破滅。各富裕國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況均搖搖欲墜，現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題只是將會(huì)摔得多慘。

　　各國(guó)央行紛紛推出舉措減緩衰退。十月二十九日美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將聯(lián)邦基金利率下降至1%，再次采取和2003年一樣的措施。利率還可能繼續(xù)下調(diào)。以這種速度降下去，人們擔(dān)心目前還在5%左右的通貨膨脹將有可能轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榫o縮。但是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官方認(rèn)為，即使悲觀預(yù)測(cè)不行成真，通脹率仍不會(huì)降至零。但據(jù)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢公司估算，到2010年核心通貨考試*大]膨脹率有可能降至1.3%，這已與美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)零的底線太過(guò)接近了。該公司預(yù)測(cè)，12月份美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)有可能將基金利率下調(diào)至0.5%；12月之后，由于下調(diào)空間不足，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能將采取向銀行和其他公司外借設(shè)備等非常規(guī)手段以保持經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。

　　降低利率是必要的。自九月中旬雷曼兄弟公司破產(chǎn)以來(lái)，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)已明顯呈現(xiàn)劣勢(shì)。10月30日公布的最新GDP數(shù)據(jù)顯示，第三季度產(chǎn)量按年率計(jì)算負(fù)增長(zhǎng)0.3%。制造業(yè)活動(dòng)調(diào)查急跌，每周初次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)激增。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)咨商局公布十月份消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)較九月的61.4點(diǎn)下降了整整38點(diǎn)。

　　消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)對(duì)消費(fèi)支出的預(yù)測(cè)雖不可靠，但股票市場(chǎng)暴跌帶來(lái)的財(cái)產(chǎn)損失和變差的信用狀況確確實(shí)實(shí)造成了影響。在經(jīng)季節(jié)性調(diào)整制度背景下，據(jù)汽車數(shù)據(jù)公司調(diào)查顯示，輕型汽車銷售量已于九月份跌至1992年以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。10月28日電器廠家惠而浦提出警示稱國(guó)內(nèi)銷售下降必將減少財(cái)政收入。同日，皇家加勒比海游輪公司稱由于“一項(xiàng)新訂單中的重大損失”下調(diào)了利潤(rùn)估算。

　　歐洲也正面臨著類似的下降局面。歐洲央行準(zhǔn)備好于11月6日進(jìn)行*考試&大秋季第二次利率下調(diào)。德國(guó)慕尼黑IFO研究機(jī)構(gòu)編制的經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)在五年多來(lái)于10月降低至最低。沃爾沃集團(tuán)在此危機(jī)中受影響最為嚴(yán)重。這家瑞典企業(yè)第三季度僅僅接到歐洲115份重型汽車訂單，較2007年同期的41970份下降了99.7%。

　　美國(guó)和歐洲不能靠出口來(lái)彌補(bǔ)岌岌可危的內(nèi)需，因?yàn)槲�機(jī)已波及至新興市場(chǎng)。空中客車公司和波音公司在未來(lái)五年內(nèi)要靠印度的300個(gè)訂單來(lái)抵消歐美市場(chǎng)減緩的需求。然而這筆訂單也很危險(xiǎn)。印度最大的航空公司捷特航空在10月25日剛剛公布了三年多以來(lái)季度最大損失報(bào)告。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者對(duì)衰敗前景觀點(diǎn)不一。巴克萊資本的迪安·馬基認(rèn)為財(cái)富流失不會(huì)立即產(chǎn)生效應(yīng)，而是會(huì)在未來(lái)數(shù)年內(nèi)對(duì)消費(fèi)支出造成持續(xù)影響。這于油價(jià)變化造成實(shí)際收入變化對(duì)消費(fèi)支出的影響不同。自七月油價(jià)大幅跳水后居民消費(fèi)如預(yù)料之中有所抬頭，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢公司估計(jì)年增長(zhǎng)約1000億美元。迪安·馬基指出，“九一一”后消費(fèi)信心急降，而后利率下調(diào)貸款免息使得卻增加了汽車銷量。九月，部分城市房?jī)r(jià)上揚(yáng)，而國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)卻小幅度有所增長(zhǎng)，這也在一定程度上驗(yàn)證了這一預(yù)測(cè)。

　　然而，這一絲曙光也有可能被目前空前惡劣的信用狀況扼*考試&大殺。高盛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家麥凱維提出，現(xiàn)代史上唯一一次可以與目前狀況媲美的是上個(gè)世紀(jì)八十年代初期聯(lián)邦政府短命的信貸稅收管制政策，那一次造成了美國(guó)居民消費(fèi)支出的顯著下降。管制結(jié)束后，下降局面立即結(jié)束。而今，信用約束的作用主要取決于個(gè)人能夠多快對(duì)比如商業(yè)票據(jù)購(gòu)買、蕭條銀行的廣泛資產(chǎn)重整等政府決策做出反應(yīng)。“政府盡一切努力調(diào)整，但貸款終究是個(gè)人決策。”他說(shuō)道。

• 上一篇：笑聲工廠
• 下一篇：奧巴馬時(shí)代