|
在顯示經濟復蘇的美國數據陸續出爐后，原油價格本周大幅走高。不過，油價上漲并沒有市場基本面的支撐。
Crude oil prices have surged this week after fresh U.S. data suggesting economic recovery is taking hold. However, the advance isn’t supported by market fundamentals.
首先是上周五公布的最新就業數據。該數據顯示，三月份美國公司新增162,000個就業崗位，為三年來最大增幅。接著是美國供應管理學會周一公布的數據。該數據顯示，服務業開始以四年來最快速度擴張。
First came the latest employment figures last Friday, which showed U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the largest gain in three years. Then came figures from the U.S. Institute for Supply Management on Monday, revealing the service sector was expanding at its fastest pace for four years.
兩大主要石油期貨合約──布倫特和西得克薩斯中質油──均對此作出反應，周一漲至每桶86美元上方，為2008年10月份以來的最高水平。
In response, both Brent and West Texas Intermediate, the two main oil-futures contracts, breached $86 a barrel Monday, the highest level since October 2008.
油價創下17個月來的高點，這本身并沒有什么重大意義，特別是考慮到上一次看到這樣的價格水平是在低迷時期。2008年七月份，原油價格觸及每桶147美元上方這一紀錄高點，三個月后油價直線下跌。不過，油價目前為每桶86美元，位于最近交易區間以上，這可能意味著投機者主導的漲勢。
The 17-month high has little significance in itself, particularly since these prices were last seen during a slump. Crude oil prices were in free-fall at the time after hitting record highs above $147 a barrel three months earlier in July 2008. But at $86 today, crude prices have moved above a recent trading range, which could signal a speculator-led bull charge.
美國分析人士、能源市場每日分析報告《Schork Report》的作者施洛克說，原油看起來已經打破了每桶75美元至85美元的區間，再往后，油價的上限就沒邊了。
’Crude oil appears to have broken out of the $75-$85 a barrel band [and], above here, the sky’s the limit,’ said U.S. analyst Stephen Schork, author of the Schork Report.
非經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)成員國的需求也在增長，特別是中國。據中國海關總署的數據，二月份中國石油進口量大幅增長至1,851萬噸。二月份的進口量相當于每日485萬桶，較一月份每日405萬桶的進口量增加了20%。
Demand is also increasing in non-OECD countries, particularly China. The country’s oil imports rose sharply in February to 18.51 million metric tons, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. February volumes were equivalent to 4.85 million barrels a day, up 20% from the 4.05 million barrels a day imported by China in January.
不過，油價的上漲應該依然受到基本面的限制。特別是考慮到有充足的供應來滿足需求。
But oil price rises should still be limited by fundamentals. In particular, there is plenty of supply to meet demand.
據美國能源部的數據，上周美國原油儲備增加293萬桶，至3.542億桶，導致供應比五年平均水平高出6.5%。汽油儲備也較去年同期增長了3.9%。
U.S. stockpiles of crude oil climbed by 2.93 million barrels to 354.2 million last week, leaving supplies 6.5% above the five-year average, according to the Department of Energy. Gasoline stocks were also 3.9% higher than a year earlier.
石油輸出國組織(OPEC，又稱歐佩克)秘書長上個月說，該組織有每日600萬桶的閑置產能。
Meanwhile, OPEC has in excess of 6 million barrels a day of spare capacity, the organization’s secretary general said last month.
盡管存在這樣供過于求的情況，我仍不確定短期內油價是否就是難以維持的。基金將作出自己的決定，推高油價，而不管基本面情況如何。它們有著創造自己走勢的習慣。
Despite this oversupply, I’m not sure prices are unsustainable over the short term. Funds will make up their own minds and push up the price despite the fundamentals. They have a habit of making their own trends.
不過，當然，石油系統中有著充足的供應，因此油價應該回歸到每桶75美元至85美元的區間。
But, certainly, there is plenty of supply in the system so prices should retrench back to the $75 to $85 range.
|
